Why are we so Diamonds and Rocks?

Well our unconvincing run into the end of the regular season finished up with a 50-20 loss to the Bali-bound Canberra Raiders. 

I, like most other Cowboys fans, was hoping this might be the game where we find some decent form before the Finals Series. Sadly it was not. So we enter the finals series with an underwhelming 2-3 record over our last 5 games (which include losses to Parramatta, the Raiders, and THAT pulverising by the Roosters).

The only thing that gives me some heart is the fact we've been Diamonds and Rocks the whole bloody season. That awesome win against the Panthers (for BigJase's 300th game) - came off three straight losses on the run in. The Roosters win at Magic Round? Came off a loss at home to Parramatta. The Broncos win to sink their finals hopes? Towelled by the Fins the week before.

It's our MO.

The next question has to be why are we so damn diamonds & rocks. And on that front I have a theory.

I think the answer lies in the history of our playing group. 

Blue chip players are hung on to tightly by clubs. And if you look at the stars of our game, they've nearly all spent their career at a single club , maybe with one high profile move to a second. Nathan Cleary, Gordon Tallis, Payne Hass, Isaah Yeo, Brad Fittler, Reese Walsh, James Fisher-Harris, Andrew Johns, Cam Smith, Jonathon Thurston, Darren Lockyer, Billy Slater, Laurie Daley, Wally Lewis, Peter Sterling - all of them one or two club players during their careers (at least during their prime anyway).

How many players in our squad are up to clubs 3 or more: Burns, Clifford, Bateman, Mikaele, Lodge, Mahoney, McIntyre. Now that's not to say these guys aren't capable of some very good footy. It does through suggest they haven't performed strongly & cconsistently across their careers - otherwise they wouldn't be at their third club.

These are the players I describe as the jouneymen of our squad. 

Then on top of that we've got Drinky, who I love as a player, but probably defines diamonds & rocks in his play. (It's worth nothing he joins his 3rd club next season). 

Some people try to slate this down to the coach, but I just can't see it. Admittedly I'm not at training but I just can't see Todd suggesting coughing up the ball in our own half or rushing out of the defensive line. In the pressers he's always about building pressure, completing set & kicking to corners. 

One could argue Payten should drop players, but we lack the depth. I don't think any Cowboys fan would be too excited about Kai O'Donnell, Rob Derby or Jaxxson Paulo coming in.

So diamond & rocks is kinda built into our squad's DNA. 

So why did we sign players like this - again comes back to our recruitment challenges. I'll be looking hard at that once the season is done.

Finals. Hooray. Well kinda anyway......

 

So we've still got a round to go, but we've offically locked up a spot in the finals. It was a scruffy win over the Tigers, but we got the job done. It was our 13th win of the season.

We’ve certainly exceeded expectations this season - this is what AI (copilot) said the experts thought was likely for the Cowboys season 2026:

 So if you averaged the major previews, the Cowboys were generally expected to finish around 8th to 12th, with 10th or 11th probably being the most representative consensus position. Very few experts had them as genuine premiership contenders before the season started, and most viewed them as a fringe finals side after their 12th-placed finish in 2025.

 Interestingly, if they end up making the finals from that starting point, they will have significantly outperformed the expectations many commentators had for them entering 2026.

Some of the forecasts were particularly bleak: ESPN actually had us finishing 16^th. And I was kinda thinking ESPN wasn't far off the mark TBH. My hopes weren't high.

So by any sensible measure we’ve punched above our weight this season. And along the way we’ve rolled the Roosters, Penrith & Sharks, not to mention the Broncos twice.

It’s funny then that there seems to be a slightly down in the mouth feeling about the club and where we’re headed, and there’s an undercurrent about the position of Payten as head coach.

So let’s unpack all of that.

I don’t think the team is in great form, and as such any excitement is being tempered.

Since the 82-12 pounding the Roosters game us in round 22, we’ve looked unconvincing. Neither the of the wins against Tigers or the Gold Coast were sparkling, and we split those games with a loss to Parramatta. We just don’t seem to be able to put together solid blocks of good footy at the moment: pushing passes, giving away set restarts, inability to defuse kicks, bad moments of handling. And it’s no single player – rather it’s the squad as a whole. On Saturday, Mikaele & Burns who came up with some bad moments at key times – and to be fair they’ve been good this season – it just seems to be a malaise that drifts across the team collectively.

It is though worth noting, no player in the NRL has given away more ruck infringements than Luki. And Reed leads the league in set restarts.

I’m still of the belief we’ve got time to pull this together and maybe even jag a win that first week of the finals. 

I do though think we’re unlikely to go beyond that point. I look at the top 4 and feel they are playing at a different level.

 So why are they at that next level?

Personally, I think that’s a squad depth thing, which in turn is a recruitment thing. And I feel the recruitment for the Cowboys is far more hamstrung than most people believe. I’ll write to this more extensively when the season is over.

On the recruitment front, I see the club has signed Joe Chan, the second rower from the Storm. Strikes me as a good signing. Very much a regular in the 17 at the Storm

82-12: The Day After the Night Before

Well last night we saw the Cowboys take what can only be descibed as an epic pounding. 82 (yes, eighty fucking two) to 12. 

Coming off the high of the derby win against the Broncos, on a 5 day turnaround and up against a premiership contender who had won their last 5, this looked a tough game to win. But I don't think anyone saw a pasting like this in the wind.

 As usual there's a chorus of angst on social media. As much though as that was as as ugly as sin last night, I do think we need some perspective:

* It was one game. And as much as the result is a stain on our season, the game will become nothing more than a trivia question in time. 

* We're still 11 and 9 with a bye up our sleeve. And our run in is comprised wholly of sides outside the top 8. We should still make the finals, and no doubt it will prove for fuel for the next couple of games

* So far this season we've beaten the Broncos twice, the Roosters, Penrith, the Sharks and Manly @ Brookvale. Our best football is excellent, there's just a rather large gap between our best and worst.

Sure it would be great to be consistently strong, but you need a elite squad that runs deep to achieve that, and IMO, and we're simply not at that level.

Instead we have a streaky team, and when they get it right, they can threaten anyone (as evidenced by  the list of big scalps from this year), but equally if we're not firing on all cylinders, we look bad.

And why so streaky? Look at our squad. Drinkwater is probably the poster child for being diamonds & rocks, but plenty of the team run hot and cold week to week: Chester, Laybutt, Clifford, Luke, Purdue, Neame, Mahoney (granted the last 2 didn't play last nite).

Personally though I'd rather we were hot and cold than meandering along at a pleasantly warm level.  You can beat quality teams with hot. You just have to wear the cold snaps occasionally. And last night was a fooking blizzard.

Addition: As much as the score stung, I actually don't think the result has much bearing on our finals chances. If let's say we'd lost to the Roosters by 20, we'd still be on 11 wins an still have a pretty crappy for and against. 13 wins has always been enough to make finals. And the result might actually prove some decent motivation for the team, at least in the short term. 

 

  

Toxic fandom: when unrealistic expectations crashes head on with reality

Well the Fins put us to the sword last night. They came out hard, we responded (and led 10-6), they lifted, we went with them (we got back to 22-14), then they kicked a 3rd time, and we were left in the dust. 

Disappointing, but I thought we put up a good show. And the Fins were clear favourites. They were 

• $1.55 favourites with the bookies
• backed by nearly all the celeb tipsters
• running a  full strength squad
• on a 4-0 run
• coming off the bye

So it was a bit of a shock to me to see the post game bile on socials. Payten, Clifford, Sutton, Purdue, Laybutt, Murray, Drinkwater, McIntyre, Luke...they all copped a spray. But it felt like a real pile on. It was ugly.

Personally, I'm still elated that we've got 8 wins and are 9th on the ladder. If you'd have offered that to me before the season commenced, I'd have snapped your hand off. I was seriously thinking we were bottom 3 material, but instead we've seen a massive lift from guys like Clifford, Chester & Mikaele, while BigJase is playing his best footy for the last 5 years, and Reed, Lodge & Luke have proved strong additions. And Payten seems to be doing a better job as coach. For me we've had a season well above expectations. 

So I'm more than a little mystified where such an outpouring of angst comes from. I'm sure every Cowboys fan would have prefered we'd have won, but the Fins are now a quality outfit playing top 4 football. We're not there yet 

But I can only feel as some point this season hope has morphed into expectation, and those expectations have become a little delusional.  

It struck me as really toxic. I'm sure we'd like to claim we're all great fans and the club has a strong supporter base, but I look at the reaction to the Fins game and I wonder. 

And I'm not for a minute suggesting that by being a fan of the club that you're obliged to cheer for & celebrate everything the club does. There is though a line...... 

Being switched on

Fair to say we got lit up by the Raiders. 26-12 doesn't sound that bad, but the Raiders scored 6 tries to 2, and it was shite kicking from Sanders that kept things relatively close.

Though Payten his the nail on the head in the post game presser. The Raders ran harder & tackled harder for the 80 minutes. And that's all about the mental side of the game: effort, intensity, etc.

As a result we now sit mid-table, in something of a sea of clubs who I think are good but not great. The Panthers and Warriors (who sit in first & second) are next level, while the Roosters, Knights, Sea Eagles, Souths, the Fins, Sharks, Cowboys, Tigers, Broncos, Raiders & maybe the Storm are in that good but not great pool: very capable on their day, but not great when they are off the bit.

It's actually interesting to look at the worst defeat each of those clubs has suffered this season:

• Roosters 4-40
• Knights 12-44
• Sea Eagles 16-36
• Souths 10-32
• Fins 10-52
• Sharks 10-38
• Cowboys 6-38
• Tigers 10-52
• Broncos 12-42
• Raiders 6-48
• Storm 16-48

So pretty much all of these clubs have taken a solid beating at some point this year, and we're not yet at the halfway mark of the season.

I think though it does underline how hard it is for clubs to be up for the fight and switched on for the whole season. There's some pretty decent coaches running this lot (I'm thinking of Bennett, Bellamy, Robinson, Maguire) and they still haven't found the secret sauce. 

Getting players up for the big games - finals, local derbys, magic round, SOO - I'm thinking that's relatively easy. The challenge lies in those run of those bog standard round games, when the finals still feel a long way off, the crowds are fair rather than great, perhaps you're away and there aren't many of your fans there,  I can understand that it happens. 

But we cetainly got lit up by the Raiders. Hopfully the team bounces back strong vs the Fins. 

A flurry of signings

It’s not been announced, but the word is the club and Todd Payten have agreed a 3 year extension (no doubt it’ll be announced soon). I think it a good thing and the right decision. I was probably on the fence earlier in the year, but I think a very strong first 12 rounds in season 2026 (we’re 8 from 12) has swung it for me.

I also think the club has made some quite big calls on the recruitment front. Resigning Purdue, Chester, Burns and Mikaele, bringing in both Ramien & Katoa, letting Drinkwater & (presumably) Murray walk. I find it impossible to believe those decisions don’t have Payten’s fingerprints all over them, so it would seem daft to let him leave at this point.

I also look around the list of available coaches, and I’m kind of underwhelmed. Brad Arthur & Jason Demetriou usually get a mention, as does Kevin Walters. None of the three have coached a club to a premiership, and none of the 3 has a winning NRL record of over 52% (Todd currently sits at 51.5% in his time with the Cowboys). The two guys who were highly regarded as being ready to be head coach – Josh Hannay & Dean Young – are both now sitting in head coach roles. And Willie Peters (who has coached very successfully in England) has taken the PNG gig. Billy Slater seems set to move in Bellamy’s shoes at Melbourne. For me there isn’t a stand out alternative.  Maybe we could take a swing at Ivan Cleary? Seems a long shot though.

The fact we’ve got so many players in career best form (or close to) is another big tick for Todd. Clifford, Burns, Chester, Luki & Mikaele are all playing their best footy at the moment, and you’d have to say Cotter, BigJase, Laybutt, Mahoney, Drinkwater, McIntyre & Lodge are also playing great. That’s good squad & man management.

So all things considered, yes, I do think the club has made the right call on Todd.

Ramien & Katoa are interesting signings. They are on the fringe at the Sharks – each has played 6 games so far this year. But both are proven first graders (well over 100 games for each. Coming here with something to prove perhaps. And both are still in their 20s. They come out of a successful program in the Sharks (who have been in the finals 4 of the last 5 year)s. They have a great combination as they both play the same side. There’s a lot to like here.

 

It’s certainly a boost to the depth and threat offered by our three-quarterline. And I think we need both to threaten for a premiership. I’m thinking Purdue to fullback leaves a centre slot open, and Murray (likely) moving on opens a wing spot. And yes, it does mean guys like Vailea, Derby, Laybutt, & Burns might get squeezed in terms of game time, but we need pressure and competition within the squad to get the best out of players, and we need quality coverage for injuries if we want to run deep into the finals.

And hey, if Vailea, Derby, Laybutt & Burns are playing well enough to command a slot, I’ve zero doubt they’ll get to play.

Whipping Boys and Sacred Cows

Disappointing loss to Parramatta. For mine we seemed to have their measure the whole game, but couldn't quite put them away. And that came back to burn us at the end.

Obviously losing TommyD sucks, and it almost certainly cost us the game. That said, even with Tommy out there on one leg, there were though still a few opportunities to ice the game, and we fumbled our lines.

I was then rather surpised to see the reactions on Twitter and facebook. Plenty of ranting about Payten and Drinkwater. Yet Mikaele, who dropped the ball with 40 seconds left in great field goal position, and could have killed the contest by dropping on a loose ball with 5 minutes left (Parramatta scored the next play), was immune to criticism.

Laybutt also had a poor night with his hands, coming up with 3 handling errors, and was central to our pissing away of our ref challenge (which might have been very useful) - again, not much criticism on line. 

If we were going to single one person out, it should have been Laybutt or Mikaele (IMO).

Meanwhile Drinkwater ran for 213m on Friday, had a tackle efficiency of 90%, produced 2 line break assists (and what should have been another try assist butchered by Laybutt in the first half). He played a strong game. He certainly didn't cost us the win. 

And I'm sure Todd didn't tell the team at half time to rack up a bunch of handling errors and give Parramatta a heap of chances. To be fair, he might have pulled Dearden straight away after the injury, but Dearden said he thought he could run it off, and the trainer (who I'm guessing wasn't some drunken rando they plucked out of the crowd 5 minutes before kickoff) also felt he'd be right: 20-20 vision in hindsight. And the interchange was already under heavy pressure given Soni Luke only lasted 30 seconds. 

It again for me brought up the idea that some players/people are very much sacred cows who never get criticised for any errors or mistakes (in this case Mikaele & Laybutt), while some are whipping boys who get the blame for everything (Drinkwater, Payten, and before that it was Chad and Peter Hiku)

I'm not 100% sure what's happening here, but I think it's something to do with Collective Behavior and the psychology of getting the likes and positive feedback from others. It's a bit Lord of the Flies in that respect. 

One thing I have noticed though. It's never the local who becomes the whipping boy - Hiku, Payten, Chad, Drinkwater - none of them North Queenslanders.

I don't know what it all means. Interesting tho.