Toxic fandom: when unrealistic expectations crashes head on with reality

Well the Fins put us to the sword last night. They came out hard, we responded (and led 10-6), they lifted, we went with them (we got back to 22-14), then they kicked a 3rd time, and we were left in the dust. 

Disappointing, but I thought we put up a good show. And the Fins were clear favourites. They were 

• $1.55 favourites with the bookies
• backed by nearly all the celeb tipsters
• running a  full strength squad
• on a 4-0 run
• coming off the bye

So it was a bit of a shock to me to see the post game bile on socials. Payten, Clifford, Sutton, Purdue, Laybutt, Murray, Drinkwater, McIntyre, Luke...they all copped a spray. But it felt like a real pile on. It was ugly.

Personally, I'm still elated that we've got 8 wins and are 9th on the ladder. If you'd have offered that to me before the season commenced, I'd have snapped your hand off. I was seriously thinking we were bottom 3 material, but instead we've seen a massive lift from guys like Clifford, Chester & Mikaele, while BigJase is playing his best footy for the last 5 years, and Reed, Lodge & Luke have proved strong additions. And Payten seems to be doing a better job as coach. For me we've had a season well above expectations. 

So I'm more than a little mystified where such an outpouring of angst comes from. I'm sure every Cowboys fan would have prefered we'd have won, but the Fins are now a quality outfit playing top 4 football. We're not there yet 

But I can only feel as some point this season hope has morphed into expectation, and those expectations have become a little delusional.  

It struck me as really toxic. I'm sure we'd like to claim we're all great fans and the club has a strong supporter base, but I look at the reaction to the Fins game and I wonder. 

And I'm not for a minute suggesting that by being a fan of the club that you're obliged to cheer for & celebrate everything the club does. There is though a line...... 

Being switched on

Fair to say we got lit up by the Raiders. 26-12 doesn't sound that bad, but the Raiders scored 6 tries to 2, and it was shite kicking from Sanders that kept things relatively close.

Though Payten his the nail on the head in the post game presser. The Raders ran harder & tackled harder for the 80 minutes. And that's all about the mental side of the game: effort, intensity, etc.

As a result we now sit mid-table, in something of a sea of clubs who I think are good but not great. The Panthers and Warriors (who sit in first & second) are next level, while the Roosters, Knights, Sea Eagles, Souths, the Fins, Sharks, Cowboys, Tigers, Broncos, Raiders & maybe the Storm are in that good but not great pool: very capable on their day, but not great when they are off the bit.

It's actually interesting to look at the worst defeat each of those clubs has suffered this season:

• Roosters 4-40
• Knights 12-44
• Sea Eagles 16-36
• Souths 10-32
• Fins 10-52
• Sharks 10-38
• Cowboys 6-38
• Tigers 10-52
• Broncos 12-42
• Raiders 6-48
• Storm 16-48

So pretty much all of these clubs have taken a solid beating at some point this year, and we're not yet at the halfway mark of the season.

I think though it does underline how hard it is for clubs to be up for the fight and switched on for the whole season. There's some pretty decent coaches running this lot (I'm thinking of Bennett, Bellamy, Robinson, Maguire) and they still haven't found the secret sauce. 

Getting players up for the big games - finals, local derbys, magic round, SOO - I'm thinking that's relatively easy. The challenge lies in those run of those bog standard round games, when the finals still feel a long way off, the crowds are fair rather than great, perhaps you're away and there aren't many of your fans there,  I can understand that it happens. 

But we cetainly got lit up by the Raiders. Hopfully the team bounces back strong vs the Fins. 

A flurry of signings

It’s not been announced, but the word is the club and Todd Payten have agreed a 3 year extension (no doubt it’ll be announced soon). I think it a good thing and the right decision. I was probably on the fence earlier in the year, but I think a very strong first 12 rounds in season 2026 (we’re 8 from 12) has swung it for me.

I also think the club has made some quite big calls on the recruitment front. Resigning Purdue, Chester, Burns and Mikaele, bringing in both Ramien & Katoa, letting Drinkwater & (presumably) Murray walk. I find it impossible to believe those decisions don’t have Payten’s fingerprints all over them, so it would seem daft to let him leave at this point.

I also look around the list of available coaches, and I’m kind of underwhelmed. Brad Arthur & Jason Demetriou usually get a mention, as does Kevin Walters. None of the three have coached a club to a premiership, and none of the 3 has a winning NRL record of over 52% (Todd currently sits at 51.5% in his time with the Cowboys). The two guys who were highly regarded as being ready to be head coach – Josh Hannay & Dean Young – are both now sitting in head coach roles. And Willie Peters (who has coached very successfully in England) has taken the PNG gig. Billy Slater seems set to move in Bellamy’s shoes at Melbourne. For me there isn’t a stand out alternative.  Maybe we could take a swing at Ivan Cleary? Seems a long shot though.

The fact we’ve got so many players in career best form (or close to) is another big tick for Todd. Clifford, Burns, Chester, Luki & Mikaele are all playing their best footy at the moment, and you’d have to say Cotter, BigJase, Laybutt, Mahoney, Drinkwater, McIntyre & Lodge are also playing great. That’s good squad & man management.

So all things considered, yes, I do think the club has made the right call on Todd.

Ramien & Katoa are interesting signings. They are on the fringe at the Sharks – each has played 6 games so far this year. But both are proven first graders (well over 100 games for each. Coming here with something to prove perhaps. And both are still in their 20s. They come out of a successful program in the Sharks (who have been in the finals 4 of the last 5 year)s. They have a great combination as they both play the same side. There’s a lot to like here.

 

It’s certainly a boost to the depth and threat offered by our three-quarterline. And I think we need both to threaten for a premiership. I’m thinking Purdue to fullback leaves a centre slot open, and Murray (likely) moving on opens a wing spot. And yes, it does mean guys like Vailea, Derby, Laybutt, & Burns might get squeezed in terms of game time, but we need pressure and competition within the squad to get the best out of players, and we need quality coverage for injuries if we want to run deep into the finals.

And hey, if Vailea, Derby, Laybutt & Burns are playing well enough to command a slot, I’ve zero doubt they’ll get to play.

Whipping Boys and Sacred Cows

Disappointing loss to Parramatta. For mine we seemed to have their measure the whole game, but couldn't quite put them away. And that came back to burn us at the end.

Obviously losing TommyD sucks, and it almost certainly cost us the game. That said, even with Tommy out there on one leg, there were though still a few opportunities to ice the game, and we fumbled our lines.

I was then rather surpised to see the reactions on Twitter and facebook. Plenty of ranting about Payten and Drinkwater. Yet Mikaele, who dropped the ball with 40 seconds left in great field goal position, and could have killed the contest by dropping on a loose ball with 5 minutes left (Parramatta scored the next play), was immune to criticism.

Laybutt also had a poor night with his hands, coming up with 3 handling errors, and was central to our pissing away of our ref challenge (which might have been very useful) - again, not much criticism on line. 

If we were going to single one person out, it should have been Laybutt or Mikaele (IMO).

Meanwhile Drinkwater ran for 213m on Friday, had a tackle efficiency of 90%, produced 2 line break assists (and what should have been another try assist butchered by Laybutt in the first half). He played a strong game. He certainly didn't cost us the win. 

And I'm sure Todd didn't tell the team at half time to rack up a bunch of handling errors and give Parramatta a heap of chances. To be fair, he might have pulled Dearden straight away after the injury, but Dearden said he thought he could run it off, and the trainer (who I'm guessing wasn't some drunken rando they plucked out of the crowd 5 minutes before kickoff) also felt he'd be right: 20-20 vision in hindsight. And the interchange was already under heavy pressure given Soni Luke only lasted 30 seconds. 

It again for me brought up the idea that some players/people are very much sacred cows who never get criticised for any errors or mistakes (in this case Mikaele & Laybutt), while some are whipping boys who get the blame for everything (Drinkwater, Payten, and before that it was Chad and Peter Hiku)

I'm not 100% sure what's happening here, but I think it's something to do with Collective Behavior and the psychology of getting the likes and positive feedback from others. It's a bit Lord of the Flies in that respect. 

One thing I have noticed though. It's never the local who becomes the whipping boy - Hiku, Payten, Chad, Drinkwater - none of them North Queenslanders.

I don't know what it all means. Interesting tho. 

Tying up some discussion loose ends

Bit of banter on bookface, twitter, discussion boards about few goings on within the club. Not worth an article my themselves, but probably knit it into a worthwile read.

Many of the discussions relate to contracts. If you want to know who's coming off contract, check out this on Zero Tackle

Why did we let Drinkwater go? 

While I'm not a fan of the decision, I understand the logic. Drinky is turning 29 in two weeks time (so is certainly in the backend of his career), and we have three boom youngsters with strong chops at fullback (Barber, King & Purdue, but you could also make a case for Chester). And I doubt we'd have gotten away with paying him anything under $800K/year. I think there are other spots where we have a pressing need to recruit.

Why are we talking to other five eighths - why not just resign Clifford? 

We've put a multi year contract to Jake and he hasn't signed. My guess is he's testing the waters with Perth and PNG entering the comp and seeing what shakes out there, but it's hard to gauge what he's thinking. He was fairly single minded about coming back to NQ and the last 6 weeks have been the best of his career, so you'd reckon he'd be happy to stay...... Regardess it makes sense for the Cowboys to be hedging their bets and talking to guys like Chanel Harris-Tavita at least until Clifford commits..

We screwed up letting <insert player> go. 

If you're talking about Val, you're wrong. He was on mega dollars here that wasn't matched by his form (which was patchy at best in 2025). And he's been a horror show at St George so far, which justifies our decision.

If you're talking about Finefuiaki, you're wrong. We tried hard to keep him. But he had strong family ties in Brisbane.

If you're talking about Gilbert, you're wrong. We tried hard to keep him. But he moved to Brisbane for family reasons.

Both Gilbert & Finefui would be awesome additions to the team, but it's hard to trump family. 

If you're talking about Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow, you probably have a stronger case, but it's complex. Some people claim we choose Peter Hiku over him. That's not the case. The Hammer signed with the Fins in October 22. Hiku signed a 2 year deal to come to NQ in May 2021. (Keep in mind Hiku has a stonking year in 2022: 6th in the comp for running metres - More metres than BigJase). The Hammer left because he wanted to play fullback and Drinkwater was in his prime and playing great footy - his pathway to the 1 jersey was blocked. Yes, Wayne Bennett moulded him into a centre/fullback and maybe we might have kept him had we pushed him to centre (and compete with Val & Hiku for a spot), but back in 2022 coming off the season the club & Hiku had, I can't remember anyone thinking this was an option back then.

If you're talking about Robson, the jury is still out. He was and is an elite hooker, but we've backfilled him rather well with Mahoney, and the word is Robson and Payten weren't on great terms. Seemingly Mahoney is proving is better fit, and I don't think we've seen his best as a Cowboy. He was though strong against the Bulldogs, and I think having that game behind him will also free him up a little more. 

Life after Drinkwater

Looks like Drinky is set to sign with the Dragons. And I’m moderately certain he’s make the move at the end of 2026 (he’s contract thru 2027, but it’s a rarity that something wouldn’t be negotiated around a earlier release). So I think we now need to be thinking about life after Drinkwater.

I do think we’re rather well served in terms of fullback coverage – Purdue is a natural fullback he can drop back from centre (and our centre stocks are solid with Chester, Laybutt & Vailea), and we’ve also got Mason Barber & Ethan King in the pipeline. Drinkwater is also just about to turn 29 – still in his prime, but certainly no longer a kid. I do understand the logic.

 I still though don’t think it a great decision.

Thing is Drinkwater is so much more than a fullback. He’s basically the nexus of our attack. In 2026, he’s 2^nd in the comp for Linebreak assists. 5^th for try assists. So not only is he a massive threat himself, but he creates for the players around him.

And while out defence hasn’t been great for the last few years, our attack has been strong. And that’s due to Drinkwater. Look at 2025 – 4^th for line break assists, 2^nd for try assists. 2024 – 2^nd for line break assists, 2^nd for try assists. He’s a phenomenal attacking weapon.

 And yes, his defence isn’t great. But that’s the nature of fullbacks. Drinkwater has 72% tackle efficiency this season. But Trbojevic only averages 66% tackle efficiency. Reece Walsh 85%. Tedesco 64%. The Hammer 80%. Faalogo 54%. Tracey 77%. Even Dylan Edwards only manages 88%. And considering Drinkwater offers so much high octane attack……

 I also come back to the coaching situation. Todd is obviously OK with the decision to let Drinky walk. But Todd’s current contract only runs the rest of season. I could imagine many coaches would be horrified at the prospect of letting Drinkwater leave. Another reason we need to have the coaching situation resolved sooner rather than later.

 I’ll miss Drinky though. He was a bloody exciting player who provided many a highlight. He also struck me as entirely good human being. I think he’ll excel at the Dragons. They have the best go forward in the comp in 2026, which means Drinky will have time and space running at a back-pedalling defence.

So what of Todd?

 So Todd Payten is out of contract as our coach come the end of 2026.

 I don’t think uncertainty regarding our coach serves the club well from a recruitment & retention perspective. Given there’s quite a few players coming off contract and I feel we need to be quite active on the recruitment front, it’s better we sort this sooner rather than later.

 So let’s look over Todd’s history at the club (and the years prior to his joining):

 Season               Finish    Wins     Coach

2018                    13^th        8            Paul Green

2019                    14^th        9            Paul Green

2020                    14^th        5            Paul Green/Josh Hannay

2021                    15^th        7            Todd Payten

2022                    3^rd          17          Todd Payten

2023                    11^th        12          Todd Payten

2024                    5^th          15          Todd Payten

2025                    12^th        9 (1)      Todd Payten

2026*                  11^th        4            Todd Payten

 *Thru 7 rounds

 

Winning % by coaches

Paul Green                       52.4%

Todd Payten                     50.4%

Graham Murray               49.8%

Neil Henry                        46.8%

Tim Sheens                       29.4%

Graham Lowe                  28.6%

Murray Hust                     22.4%

Josh Hannay                     20%

Ian Millward                     14.3%

Grant Bell                          8.7%

 

I think a few things are pretty clear from this

• Todd walked into a struggling club – 3 years on the bounce with no final footy. In his 5 full seasons with the club, he’s taken us to the finals twice. That’s a massive positive
• 2022 was a high point that we’ve struggled to reproduce since. That’s a negative
• Todd is our second most successful coach ever  (by winning % at least)

So there’s lots of good things here. Two finals runs (and they were good finals runs – wins in both campaigns, 1 prelim, 1 semi). Turning around a club that was on the doldrums. A winning % of over 50%

 There is though a question mark over Todd’s coaching since 2022. Since then though we’ve kind of struggled – 36 wins, 35 losses, 1 draw. So the win/loss looks OK, but at no point over the last 3 seasons has there really been a feeling that we’re building toward something, setting up for a push in the next season or two. Rather we’re treading water. And yes we made the finals in 2024, but it was a scrambling campaign, and at no point did you feel we were ever truly premiership contenders.

 A 4-3 start sounds like more of the same in 2026. We’ve shown flashes of real quality but equally moments of mediocrity. I’d have argued the trajectory had real promise until the dumpster fire  that was the Manly game.

Now personally, I think our recruitment and retention has been poor over the last few years, and that’s limited our growth and development.  Tom Gilbert, Kulikefu Finefuiaki, Reece Robson, Val Holmes and Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow all left in their prime. Meanwhile Jordan McLean, Kyle Feldt & Chad Townsend all came off the salary cap. Granted we did pick up Tommy Dearden (keeping in mind he only player 32 games for Brisbane, and arrived an unpolished gem) and Reed Mahoney was added this year. Other than that we’ve largely been recruiting journeymen, who have pinged between a few clubs having never really found a home – Burns, Paulo, Bateman, Lodge, McIntyre, O’Donnell, Mikaele. Now I’m not saying these guys aren’t capable of some solid footy, but rather they don’t walk in the door as established first grade regulars. I’m sure they were fairly cheap to recruit for exactly that reason. Not all will prove to be diamonds, and many will in fact prove to be rocks.

I am though wondering why we haven’t been able to recruit a few more high profile players during this period? Yes we had to upgrade contracts for Dearden, Cotter, Luki & Nanai, but Val was on massive dollars. As was Chad. Surely between them and the others who left there would have been salary cap room to bring in a couple more quality established first graders?

Hence me thinking recruitment & retention is broken. A lack of quality coming in, too much quality seeping out.

The question is though how much of that can be put down to Todd? I think the coach is a significant factor in decisions around players choosing to join and which players to chase. But equally dollars, location, family issues & the likelihood of onfield glory are major factors in any contract decsisions. And going to the out-of-sight out-of-mind Cowboys, 2000+ kilometers away, and running south of mid-table, probably isn’t high on the radar of too many players.

The other factor in all of this – who exactly do we bring in as coach if we do sack Todd? Willie Peters had a strong CV, but has joined PNG, Hannay seemed a logical fit, but is now entrenched at the Gold Coast. There’s been some good noise around Dean Young for a while (and he spent time up here during a good spell for the club) but it’s not a great time to be associated with the Dragons. Walters would be there and about. Maybe we could lure Slater into the role? We’d want to have someone good in the frame before we go swinging axes. And Dean Young is unlikely given he's the interim at Saints.

So long story short: It’s complex. Todd has done some good things during his time, and has carved out a solid record. But equally the team really doesn’t have a clear trajectory and seems to be stuck in a groove of mediocrity. 

Decisions need to be made. And I think it something of a coin toss.