So what of Todd?

 So Todd Payten is out of contract as our coach come the end of 2026.

 I don’t think uncertainty regarding our coach serves the club well from a recruitment & retention perspective. Given there’s quite a few players coming off contract and I feel we need to be quite active on the recruitment front, it’s better we sort this sooner rather than later.

 So let’s look over Todd’s history at the club (and the years prior to his joining):

 Season               Finish    Wins     Coach

2018                    13^th        8            Paul Green

2019                    14^th        9            Paul Green

2020                    14^th        5            Paul Green/Josh Hannay

2021                    15^th        7            Todd Payten

2022                    3^rd          17          Todd Payten

2023                    11^th        12          Todd Payten

2024                    5^th          15          Todd Payten

2025                    12^th        9 (1)      Todd Payten

2026*                  11^th        4            Todd Payten

 *Thru 7 rounds

 

Winning % by coaches

Paul Green                       52.4%

Todd Payten                     50.4%

Graham Murray               49.8%

Neil Henry                        46.8%

Tim Sheens                       29.4%

Graham Lowe                  28.6%

Murray Hust                     22.4%

Josh Hannay                     20%

Ian Millward                     14.3%

Grant Bell                          8.7%

 

I think a few things are pretty clear from this

• Todd walked into a struggling club – 3 years on the bounce with no final footy. In his 5 full seasons with the club, he’s taken us to the finals twice. That’s a massive positive
• 2022 was a high point that we’ve struggled to reproduce since. That’s a negative
• Todd is our second most successful coach ever  (by winning % at least)

So there’s lots of good things here. Two finals runs (and they were good finals runs – wins in both campaigns, 1 prelim, 1 semi). Turning around a club that was on the doldrums. A winning % of over 50%

 There is though a question mark over Todd’s coaching since 2022. Since then though we’ve kind of struggled – 36 wins, 35 losses, 1 draw. So the win/loss looks OK, but at no point over the last 3 seasons has there really been a feeling that we’re building toward something, setting up for a push in the next season or two. Rather we’re treading water. And yes we made the finals in 2024, but it was a scrambling campaign, and at no point did you feel we were ever truly premiership contenders.

 A 4-3 start sounds like more of the same in 2026. We’ve shown flashes of real quality but equally moments of mediocrity. I’d have argued the trajectory had real promise until the dumpster fire  that was the Manly game.

Now personally, I think our recruitment and retention has been poor over the last few years, and that’s limited our growth and development.  Tom Gilbert, Kulikefu Finefuiaki, Reece Robson, Val Holmes and Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow all left in their prime. Meanwhile Jordan McLean, Kyle Feldt & Chad Townsend all came off the salary cap. Granted we did pick up Tommy Dearden (keeping in mind he only player 32 games for Brisbane, and arrived an unpolished gem) and Reed Mahoney was added this year. Other than that we’ve largely been recruiting journeymen, who have pinged between a few clubs having never really found a home – Burns, Paulo, Bateman, Lodge, McIntyre, O’Donnell, Mikaele. Now I’m not saying these guys aren’t capable of some solid footy, but rather they don’t walk in the door as established first grade regulars. I’m sure they were fairly cheap to recruit for exactly that reason. Not all will prove to be diamonds, and many will in fact prove to be rocks.

I am though wondering why we haven’t been able to recruit a few more high profile players during this period? Yes we had to upgrade contracts for Dearden, Cotter, Luki & Nanai, but Val was on massive dollars. As was Chad. Surely between them and the others who left there would have been salary cap room to bring in a couple more quality established first graders?

Hence me thinking recruitment & retention is broken. A lack of quality coming in, too much quality seeping out.

The question is though how much of that can be put down to Todd? I think the coach is a significant factor in decisions around players choosing to join and which players to chase. But equally dollars, location, family issues & the likelihood of onfield glory are major factors in any contract decsisions. And going to the out-of-sight out-of-mind Cowboys, 2000+ kilometers away, and running south of mid-table, probably isn’t high on the radar of too many players.

The other factor in all of this – who exactly do we bring in as coach if we do sack Todd? Willie Peters had a strong CV, but has joined PNG, Hannay seemed a logical fit, but is now entrenched at the Gold Coast. There’s been some good noise around Dean Young for a while (and he spent time up here during a good spell for the club) but it’s not a great time to be associated with the Dragons. Walters would be there and about. Maybe we could lure Slater into the role? We’d want to have someone good in the frame before we go swinging axes. And Dean Young is unlikely given he's the interim at Saints.

So long story short: It’s complex. Todd has done some good things during his time, and has carved out a solid record. But equally the team really doesn’t have a clear trajectory and seems to be stuck in a groove of mediocrity. 

Decisions need to be made. And I think it something of a coin toss.