Seven rounds in to Season 2024. 4 Wins, 3 losses. On the fringe of the 8. Happy days right?
No. Not really.
We had a very soft draw to start the year (Titans, Knights, St George, Dolphins, Parra, Broncos & Sharks). Titans, Knights & St George aren't expected to trouble the 8 this year, and the Fins are very Jekyll & Hyde, and we caught them on a bad day. The Broncos gave us a touch up, Parra beat us in one of the ugliest games in history, and last week we got lapped by the Sharks. At best we've been unconvincing.
A lot of people are annoyed at Todd Payton's coaching. He's basically stuck to the same playing group over the last 7 weeks, and hasn't rung the changes, but I think it's not quite that simple:
Well there's a bit to unpick here, so let's start by looking at major changes & injuries that have occurred so far this year. Before the season starts we lost Leilua. He wasn't universally loved, but he was a big body who could do the hard yards, create a bit in attack and was a solid defender. The was averaging 120m running metres a game and was a regular starter. Significant loss.
Then we lost Coen Hess in the preseason for the season. Another starter, another big body, another central defender.
This also comes at a time when Jason Taumalolo is struggling. Across seasons 22 & 23, he was averaging almost bank on 150m/game. This year he's averaging 84m. Payten's on the record as saying Taumalolo has knee issues and can't punch out the minutes he once did. I'd also say the quality of those minutes have dropped. Across seasons 22 & 23 he broke 110 tackles, this year he's broken 10 (so is on track for a total around 25-30). That's a massive drop.
Then you think about Helium Luki. He's only played 2 games out of the 7 this season. Another high quality big man on the sidelines.
It's a lot of forward firepower to be missing. And guys like Leilua & Taumalolo (the 2022 version) - they were impact players. They could trample defenders and crash through the line at any point, typically drawing 3 tacklers. And Leilua & Taumalolo like this open up opportunities for players like Cotter & Nanai: instead of running at a set defensive line, they are running at a retreating line that's under pressure and get that bit more time & space.
Actually every player on the team benefits from a big man making damaging runs. the rest of the pack, the halves, the three quarters.
We are also statistically the worst handling team in the comp this year. Our completion rate is 75%. Worse than the bulldogs. Worse than St George. Now Completion rates aren't quite the magic bullet some may believe (and just to underline that, The Titans have the best completion rate in the comp, while the Panthers & Storm are 11th & 14th respectively).
And I think that's why Todd has been reluctant to roll the dice on Mikaele. He seems to be a guy who likes to offload. And that's a risky game on the NRL. He's getting a run this weekend against the Panthers anyway.
And the cupboard beyond that is bare. Taunoa-Brown is injured, Gosiewski is a journey man who hasn't offered much in his game time (and apparently is headed to the Broncos anyhow), Pua'avase is a rookie kid, and Shibasaki is also a rookie.
Quite simply the cupboard to bare when it comes to forwards.
The backs. We're the #1 attacking team in the comp. We're also #1 for line breaks. I'd suggest we maybe don't have too many issues in the backline.
Doesn't stop plenty of people being annoyed at Chad Townsend. I think the reality is for most of the last decade we probably had one of the best players ever in the halves, and he's a hell of an act to try follow. Chad is a very decent halfback: a good organiser of play, someone who sees opportunities, someone who puts a solid end on a set, a good passer who provides a bit of width. But he's not brilliant at anything either. He's not a phenomenal kicker who regularly puts up uncatchable spirals and raking 40-20s. He doesn't threaten the line himself. He's not the guy who puts someone through a hole when ever he drifts across the field.
What he does though is provide that stability which enables Dearden & Drinkwater to freelance and play opportunist. They can get afford to get tackled on the 5th and not worry about working out how to end the set as Chad has it covered.
People are calling for Clifford to come in. Not sure why. He didn't light it up at 7 for us, for Newcastle or at St Helens. He had his moments for all, but the fact he's here on a 12 mth gig playing reggies when there's a lack of 7s in the NRL tells us something.
I think Todd signed Clifford as cover for Chad & Dearden while we wait for Duffy to develop. I think longer term we'll look to a Duffy/Dearden combo.
So what of 2024? Personally I think we lack the grunt in the park to threaten the top 4, but I think given a decent injury run and improved handling, we can run somewhere 5 thru 8.
I think it'll be interesting to see the player movements at the end of the year though. Jordan is off contract, Clifford is off contract Chad is off contract, Hess is off contract, Feldt is off contract, we just lost Finefuiaki, Granville is off contract. There most be enough bones there to throw at couple of strong forwards.
We will see
