The maths isn't mathing

Recruitment & retention are critical to any successful NRL program. And while recruitment isn't simply a dollars shootout, there's no doubt the salary is a key facet in the decision making.

And I'm struggling to make sense of how the numbers work at the Cowboys.

Before I get down into the weeds with the Cowboys squad, it's important to understand how the salary cap works and what a few people are apparently being paid.

The NRL salary cap in 2025 is $11.4 million. And the salary includes match day payments, bonus structures, etc. Apart from relocation expenses & education programs, there's very little else that can be bundled to a players' package.

The average NRL player gets paid around $370-400K per year. Now the question is what does "average" mean. I'm thinking a regular in the first 17, solid reliable footballers, but certainly not a star players who either makes the State of Origin or is on the fringe of selection. So In Cowboys terms I'm thinking people like Griff Neame, Viliami Vailea or Sam McIntyre. 

Position also matters. Spine players (1, 6, 7, 9) get paid more, wingers the least. Props are also handsomely paid. Centres. 2nd rowers and locks fall somewhere in the middle.

Top draw rep guys get paid a little over $1 mill a year: Cleary, Munster, Latrell, Hass. All are a bit over the million/year. 

At the other end, the minimum a player on the top 30 can make is $125K per year.

So I'm thinking the juniorish guys coming into the squad are that lowest number ($125K), unless there is some real buzz around them. Once they've earnt their stripes and played some first grade, that soon jumps to $200-250K, until they become a regular one we're looking at $400K or so (unless they are spine or a prop, then you can add $50K, or a winger and you deduct $50K). Anyone who is either rep level or a first grade gun (that's goes to $700K plus, depending on how bright their star is.

So let's look at some of the the Cowboys squad (and some recent departures) and what has been reported about their salaries:

• Big Jase: $950K/yr
• Cotter: $800K/yr
• Nanai: $775K/yr
• Robson:  $775K/yr
• Drinky: $725K/yr
• Dearden: $625K/yr
• Hess: $550K/yr
• Val: $850K/yr
• Chad: $700K/yr

(In case you are wondering where those numbers come from, many can be found at Zero tackle or by googling the player name and annual salary cowboys) 

I think those numbers also make sense in the context of the valuations I outlined above. Do though keep in mind timing of contract renewal matters - I doubt we'd get Dearden for $625K now  given he's starting in SOO. 

Ok, so over the last few years, we've lost Val (850K), Chad (700K), Finefeuiaki (estimating he was on 200K or so), Lemuelu (again, on 200K or so), the Hammer (thinking $250K there), Feldt (350K), Gilbert (250K or so) - keep in mind most of those guys were looking at the first renewal having come thru our junior system, hence the relatively low valuations. That adds up to $2.8 million in salaries taken off our cap. Robson going takes that to $3.55 mill in 2026.

On the flip side, we renewed Cotter, Nanai, Luki, Dearden & Drinky. Even if you thought we needed to find $400K/player over their initial contracts. That's $2 million. That means we have around $1.55 million/yr left over. 

Yes we signed Bateman, but we also lost Leilua. Like for like. Bateman might even be a bit cheaper given he arrived under a cloud.

(and yes, there has been some churn outside those players - Derby, Burns, Lawton - but these aren't big dollar guys, and we equally had cheap squad types back in 2021 & 2022 - Condon, Dunn, Hampton, Tauona-Brown)

$1.55 million/yr. That's a lot of cash. 

So what do we have to show for it? Bugger all that I can see. That's why I say the maths isn't mathing. Where has the cash gone?

We also know the Cowboys are a heavyweight financially. There's no reason to think we're not spending the full cap. 

It also really burns that we've lost FineFui, the Hammer, Gilbert & Lemuelu. We clearly find it hard to attract top draw players, but the flip side of that means we should be able to retain the bulk of the talent we develop. Granted Gilbert has had a horrid run with injury, but the other 3 are carving it up at the Fins.

We've also literally got no-one joining us in 2026 at this stage......

Fins 58 - Cowboys 4

It's fair to say Saturday night was ugly. 58 fucking 4, at home. 

And yes, we had our State of Origin players missing - Cotter, Nanai, Robson & Dearden. And yes, we lost big Jase to a calf injury just before kickoff . And to be fair the Fins have been hot - they put 40 past the Dogs then 50 over the Dragons.

But you can't polish a turd. And that's what what Saturday night was.

The lack of fight was disappointing, but I felt we were really seeing a gulf in quality on show.  The Fins seemed so much better from 1-17. It really makes me question our depth and our recruitment policy. 

We've brought in a heap of so called squad or depth players - O'Donnell, Mikaele, Edwards, Macintyre, Lawton, Neame, Burns - all were well short of the mark on Saturday. What exactly is the point of having these guys in the squad to supposedly "add depth" when they clearly aren't up to the standard of first grade?

And it hurts that bit more when we'd being done over by ex-Cowboys like Lemuelu & Finefuiaki. These are the guys we should have been keeping. They looked like quality first graders on Saturday.

I'm also incredibly frustrated with Jake Clifford. As a halfback who has played 80 NRL games, he needed to play a leading role shaping our attack and ensuring good finishes to our sets. And instead he was invisible. We were a rabble. Horrid display from Clifford. And yes, Purdue could and should have done better too, but he's playing what, his 3rd game in the halves? 

I actually look back to *all* of our recent recruitment. It's a long time since we've brought in a blue chip, established, regular first grader. We need to stop digging around in the bargain bin. Yes we have a focus on local juniors & developing our own talent, and that's to be saluted, but surely we should be able to keep guys like Finefuiaki if we've gone down this path?

I'm also annoyed Todd doesn't have more to say than we needed to kick to corners, we needed to make less mistakes coming out of our end. Yes and yes, but that wasn't the story of the Fins games. The utter outclassing of a squad that's come together on his watch was the story.

I'm now wondering where the club is headed. We've got no-one of note joining us in 2026, Big Jase still has 2 years to run on his contract, and he's addled by injuries (and doesn't have anything like the impact on games he once did even when he is fit); McLean (still our best prop) will be 34 before the end of the year; Robson is off to the Roosters. 

Fools Gold: the constant calls for Clifford

Every week, win lose or draw there is a spray of keyboard warriors saying we need to get Clifford back in the side. And Clifford should be taking over the goal kicking from Drinkwater. And this happens win lose or draw.

Let's deal with the goal kicking first:

• Clifford kicks at 66.06% across his career
• Drinkwater kicks at 75.56% across his career (all this season)

'nuff said.

So let's talk general play. 

There's this weird aura around Clifford that he's got this glorious general play kicking game. He doesn't. 

• 40-20s in 2025: zero in 7 games
• 40-20s in 2024: one in 7 games

And his kicking as a whole? Clifford averages 228m/game in 2025. Meanwhile Clearly punches out 530m/game for the Panthers and Mitch Moses 555m/game - that's what great kicking looks like. And even Chad Townsend averages 304m/game at the Roosters 

He also utterly failed to ice the Panthers game with a field goal in golden point.

My 2 cents. His kicking is decent, but it's far from remarkable. Totally not worth picking him based on his kicking alone. 

As to his play at halfback. The team has won 57% of the games he's played in in 2025, and the team has won 41% as of the Storm game. He did though miss the Storm game, the Manly game & the Sharks game, all of which we lost by over 20 points. Even an avid Clifford fan would be hard pressed to say he'd have turned those games around.

In terms of other important stats for a halfback, Clifford in 2025 has:

• 0.33 try assists/game (Drinkwater has 1/game, Dearden 0.92/game, Purdue 0.42/game)
• 0.22 linebreak assists/game (Dearden has 1.33/game, Drinkwater 1/games, Purdue 0.67/game)
• 0.33 linebreaks/game (Purdue & Drinkwater both 0.83/game, Dearden 0.17/game)

(and if we drop back to 2024 stats, Drinkwater, Dearden & Chad all had better line break assists/game,  Clifford was 3rd of the 4 for both try assists/game, and 3rd of the 4 for linebreaks/game)

He also has a NRL career winning percentage of 41% (and that drops to 40% for the Cowboys). 

It's very hard to argue based on the stats above that Clifford is some sort of magic bullet for the side. 

My biggest frustration with Jake is his hands aren't on the ball enough - he doesn't direct the side, nor shape the attack. He doesn't play like a 7. Instead he crops up in odd spots for a halfback - chasing bombs & running holes close the line. Occasionally it sticks and he looks like a genius, but often he just seems to be MIA for halves or even games. 

I also think the Dearden-Purdue combo will continue to grow and get better. 

The article isn't meant to be a Jake bash. I do though think after 8 seasons in the NRL, having spent time under the coaching of some elite 7s (Paul Green, Jonathan Thurston & Andrew Johns), I'm not certain Clifford is the guy we can or should build a team around.