Is it really just down to BigJase and his absence in 2025?

Big Jase has been back for 2 weeks now. Interestingly, the team has been rather good the last two weeks: we hammered the Knights at home on Sunday, and we took it to the last minute v Parramatta in Sydney.

We quite simply play better when Jason is playing. In 2025, he's played only 8 games, and we've won 5 of them (62.5%). Games he's missed, we're 3/14 (21.4%)

No other player on the squad has this sort of impact on the team. Look at the (2025) winning percentages for:

• Clifford (50%)
• Vailea (46.2%)
• Jordo (35.3%)
• Sam Mac (37.5%)
• Mikaele (25%)
• Cotter (43.8%)
• Dearden (40.0%)

(keep in mind we're 8 from 22 this year - that's 36.4%)

Last two here are the most interesting IMO. No-one could possibly argue Tommy & Cotter aren't excellent players who give their all out there for the club, but they simply don't have the impact Taumalolo has. 

Another interesting thing. We haven't conceded more than 30 in a game BigJase has played. And in no game he's played have we lost by more than 10 points. In a season when we've been beaten by 18+ eight times. 

Clifford, Vailea and Cotter who have the best winning percentages outside Jase - each of them have been involved in a couple of floggings.

It's a remarkable set of stats. 

If we drill down into his match stats, BigJase is still an animal out there - runs for an average of 150m a game in 2025. The only forward in our pack averaging over 100m. Payne Hass only averages 167m, Fischer-Harris averages 106m, Leota 102m,  Fa'asuamaleaui 136m, Utoikamanu 109m, Fonua-Blake 165m. And keep in mind Jason only plays 40 min or so these days. Jase is still a utter savage.

The fact he's able to bend the line and pull in 3 or 4 defenders benefits the rest of the squad. Makes that next hit up so easier with the defence in retreat, gives the halves that bit more space and time, and means the three quarters are getting the ball in clean air. It's also got to be good for the confidence of the squad seeing Jase rip in. 

Hopefully Jase can manage 16-20 games in 2026

Pulling apart the first half of the Sharks debacle

Coming off the Dragons win, a 9 day turnaround and a flicker of hope that we're in still the running for finals, you'd have hoped we came up with a strong effort against the Sharks.

We didn't.

26-0 down at half time. Game was over

It was bad. Error riddled & poor discipline. I actually watched back the first half again this morning looking to pinpoint the bad moments & events (and the guilty parties). Used a lot of paper. The ones in bold & italics were (what I thought) key issues that led to tries (they are underlined):

• 2nd min: Robson high shot - penalty that got them out of their end
• 3rd min: Derby attempted intercept leads to 6 again - to be fair not really an error
• 4th min: short grubber for Trindall try
• 8th min: Nanai dropped ball deep into attack
• 9th min: Sharks shortside raid - Purdue & Burns rushed up an took no-one
• 10th min: Edwards forward pass on last
• 11th min: Hess gives away 6 again on last with extra leg pull
• 12th min: Cotter knock on midfield
• 13th min: Offside 6 again, Cotter & Nanai give away penalty, Sharks take 2
• 15th min: Derby escort penalty. Penalty to Sharks in Redzone
• 16th min: Fonua-Blake try. Splits Dearden & Bateman close to line
• 21st min: Sharks shortside raid - Purdue came in and took no-one
• 24th min: Laybutt knock on when we had best attacking look in 1st half. Likely bombed try
• 26th min: Burns incorrect play the ball. Hand over ball 30 m from our line
• 29th min: Bateman penalty for stripping, when we finally had some field position
• 30th min: Drinkwater slips/falls over and fails to stop Mulitalo (try). Laybutt a statue creating overlap
• 34th min: Sharks get 6 again after a grubber into a sea of legs - to be fair not really an error
• 36th min: Sharks spread and Mulitalo over for 2nd. Derby came in on Talakai and didn't stop offload
• 37th min. Drinkwater drops bomb
• 38th min: Robson dummy half pass to no-one. Ball regathered and set continues. Messy but not a big deal

Thing that strikes me here is how many people stuffed up at one point in the half: Robson, Hess, Edwards, Cotter, Nanai, Bateman, Burns, Purdue, Laybutt, Derby, Drinkwater (granted the last 2 are frequent flyers when it comes to errors). And this has been the pattern all year - shitloads of errors across the 17

And most of these errors are coming from experienced players - only Purdue, Laybutt & Derby (though I'm totally out of patience on Derby) can possibly play the young & green card. 

Pretty much are all coach killing errors. I'm sure Todd isn't saying, "let's give away some cheap 6 agains" or "Burnsy - throw in a shitty play the ball". 

That said, what is Todd saying & doing? Our centres still seem all at sea in defence, and our edge defence is still a weakness. Our attack seems clunky rather than slick. The Todd mantra seems to be finish your sets and kick to corners. Sounds a nice simple plan perhaps, but we're not executing it. This week or this season (apart from maybe the Penrith away game)

There were actually some good moments of play. Burns catching a bomb in attack 15m out. Bitungane looking strong and lifting the side when he came on. Deaden & Drinkwater running a cool wrap around that almost led to a try. Neame pulling on a series of heavy shots trying to force a Sharks error & lift the side. Drinkwater making a bomb close to sideline an out on the full by making sure he was in touch. Slim pickings.

*sigh*

The Tollett Paradox

It's fair to say my last post (Changing Coaches isn't always the Magic Bullet)  wasn't wonderfully received by the masses. To be fair, in the article I'm kinda advocating the Cowboys stick with Todd, rather than changing tack at this point - an opinion clearly not widely shared. I thought I made a fairly compelling case that swapping coaches isn't always a magic bullet that sees your team roar up the table and become a premiership threat, but I certainly got a lot of people sending me examples of coach changes that did bear fruit quickly. 

The bigger concern that was raised though was that of the club's trajectory. 

Perhaps though the more interesting thing that emerged during the back and forth on Twitter, is the fact that many anti-Todd Cowboys fans are actually hoping the rest of the season goes rather badly. Clearly the thinking is a bad finish to the 2025 campaign will probably sign the death certificate of Todd as a coach. 

So because you feel a change in coaching staff is key to success of the club, you want the case for change to become a slam dunk rather than a debate. So you actually start wanting the team to lose.  

It's a funny situation, I refer to as the Tollett Paradox. The Cowboys aren't the first club to experience it. Indeed I remember feeling the same about Tim Sheens and the club toward the end of his tenure. 

I'm sure Titans fans (all 7 of them) probably feel the same way regarding Des right now.