So it's fair to say the locals weren't happy with the towelling the Cowboys got in the 2025 season opener at Manly
42-12 wasn't pretty watching. The Cowboys 12 also came in the last 10 when Manly had racked the cue.
Not the way you want to start season 2025.
Since then the jungle drums have been beating regarding Todd Payten and his response (dropping Nanai). Is he the man to coach the Cowboys and will he be sacked? Well here's my analysis of the situation:
(1) Saturday night was horribly disappointing., but it is just one game
(2) Manly are a pretty handy outfit. Just like us, they made week 2 of the finals in 2024, and they are a big physical side - not who you want fresh first up. I think it's fair to say that (barring injury) a lot of teams will lose at Brookvale this season.
(3) Manly were white hot on Saturday
(4) We had a rookie half back on debut. Duffy was solid but it no doubt impacted our play.
(5) Todd questioned the mindset and approach of the team to Saturday. Fair call, but surely he as head coach needs to be all over that.
(6) Our pack looked weak going into 2025. Mclean is 33, Taumalolo is 31 (and is fragile at best), Luki is gone for the season (ACL in preseason). Neame, Edwards & Macintyre are solid but strike fear into no-one. Cotter is blue chip as is Robson. Nanai - his good is great, but his worst is poor (2 runs for 16 metres in 58 min at Manly). Jury is out on Batman. Hess was good on Saturday, but missed last year with an ACL. It's an workman-like pack but not a great one. We are going to trample no-one, and we risk getting trampled at times. And in Saturday we got trampled.
(7) Once your forwards get trampled and lose the fight for metres, your backs will look terrible. They are not only backpedalling madly, but the opposition halves run at them with space & time, and the centres can pick the best lines to run. It looks like they are defending on roller skates.
(8) Payten will have been hugely disappointed in our pack. He clearly believes forward play is more about intent & commitment than anything. The axe needed swinging and Nani was where the blade landed. Makes sense to me. He was our worst forward v Manly, and we have seemingly some solid cover at second row. I do think though the question is how Nanai responds. If he takes it on the chin, works to up his involvement, racks up some solid efforts in the twos, it reflects well on both Todd & Nanai. Flip side is the toys could come out of the cot and he wants a move and it all gets ugly. It'll be an insight into Payten's man management.
(9) Memories of 2022? First game out we produced a horrid effort to lose to the Bulldogs at home, and the Bulldogs had been the wooden spooners the previous season. Questions flew around about Payten, Townsend, where the club was heading, etc. We racked up 17 wins that year and finished 3rd. I'm not suggesting that will happen this year, but it's a point worth making - game 1 does not define your season.
(10) Payten is one of only 2 coaches in our history that has a better than 50% winning record (the other being Paul Green and even that's close 51.3% vs 52.1%). He inherited a team that hadn't finished better than 13th in the previous 3 seasons, and he's been deep into the finals twice in four seasons in charge. He's been a very successful coach for us.
(11) Sacking your coach after 1 week is madness. It means you have pissed away your off season and are basically writing off the year changing coach at this stage.
So at this stage, I'm suggesting we stick with Todd. He's earnt a bit of loyalty during his time, and it's too early in the year. It will though be interesting to see how the squad & Nanai respond.
(As I complete this, the Warriors have beaten Manly well. It hasn't exactly franked Manly's form).
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