A new coach isn't always the magic bullet you hope....

The Cowboys football club chairman Lewis Ramsey has poured cold water on the possibility of Payten being sacked this season. There will be an off season review (as you'd expect). There's disappointment from Ramsey about where we sit, but still seems to be a belief that Todd can turn things around.

I do think that it's important though to realise a change of coach doesn't equal a change of fortunes:

• Des Hasler joined the Titans in a blaze of publicity in 2023, and they still suck
• Wayne Bennett re-joined Souths to much fanfare this year, and they still suck
• Jason Ryles hasn't exactly got Parramatta firing yet (joined in off season)
• Craig Fitzgibbon inherited a fringe top 8 side at the Sharks in 2022, and now has a fringe top 8 side

Hasler & Bennett don't need any intro. Ryles joined Parra from the Storm, Fitzgibbon came to the Sharks from the Roosters. So both had great apprenticeships at successful clubs.

Now Bennett may yet make his mark at Souths, and Ryles is equally early into his time at Parra, so the die isn't cast there (Hasler looks a dead man walking though) And yes, Ciraldo has turned the Dogs around. But even that has taken 3 seasons, despite having a bunch of Penrith connections to draw from and a close to blank cheque book. 

It's actually quite interesting to look at the current NRL coaches and their tenures. The last 3 clubs to lift the Premiership: Panthers, Storm & Roosters.  All 3 have long term Coaches: Bellamy has been at the Storm for nearly 23 years, Cleary at the Panthers for approaching 7 years, and Robinson at the Roosters for nearly 13 years. Only other guy close to these 3 in terms of tenure in terms of tenure is Ricky Stuart (11 yrs at Raiders, and top of the table at the moment) - and he took the Raiders to 1 grand final and 2 prelim finals during his time. 

My point is changing the coach isn't the magic fix one might hope or think, and in fact coach stability actually seems to be the secret sauce to success as a club. 

Now what?

After the fins game (a 43-24 defeat), it's fair to say our season in over. 12th and playing badly, 5 points outside the top eight, probably 7 point by the end of the round. We do have a decent run for the next few weeks, but we'd need to win our remaining 6 games and even that might not be enough. It's over.

I think it's all about 2026 and doing what we can in the remaining games to set for next year.

Now plenty would say "sack Todd Payten". I don't think that'll happen. I'd heard that when Todd took the job the player contracts were such a mess (with long term & backloaded deals) that he joined with a get out of jail free card up until the end of 2025. I still believe that the case, so I don't think we'll sack Todd. I also think we've achieved some really good things under Payten. A prelim final in 2022 and 5th in 2024. Keeping in mind we ran 13th, 14th and 14th the 3 years before he joined. The guy can coach

And I think changing coaches isn't the quick fix many would hope for. Cameron Ciraldo has done wonders at the Bulldogs, but he walked in the door with  raft of Penrith connections and a bucket load of cash & cap space. And it's only in this is 3rd season that it seems like it'll start to pay dividends. If we sack Todd today, we _might_ be looking at a good 2028 _if_ we hire the right guy. Big might & if. 

So if we're sticking with Todd, what else can we be doing? Here are my thoughts - I've split it out into rest of 2025 and 2026:

Rest of 2025

• Try Drinkwater at 6, Purdue at 1

It seems like we've settled on Dearden at 7. It's now about working out who is best to play along side him.

We've given Purdue & Clifford a try an neither has exactly stamped their name on it. Granted it's hard to do that behind a beaten pack. I'd just like to see Drinkwater in there. He plays a lot like a five eighth now and provides a lot of final passes, and has the pace to scare most other 6s in the comp. We might have to hide him on the wing in defence, but that could be done fairly easily.

Purdue likes fullback and might offer more assurance under the high ball. He's also a real opportunist with elite pace. 1 could be a good fit for him. 

• Forget Robson

He's leaving. Yes he's a good player, and yes we have Mahoney joining us in 2026, but why not give Duffy a crack at 9? He looked good going in there, and it builds his first grade experience. Or Temple Kalepo (who made his debut vs the Storm). Give them the chance to get a few more games under their belt.

• Play Cotter at Prop

Our prop stocks are meagre, and racked by injury (BigJase, Mikaele & McLean are currently out). I also feel the strength we have in backrowers is kind of wasted: the back 5 really take a big load running out from the back in Todd's system, so by the time one of your props take a run or you run a spread, it's time for a kick. 2nd rowers and lock barely get a look. So let's get Cotter back up front. It's a spot he's played at SOO level.

• Try Nanai in the centres

This one is a bit left field, but we're struggling in the centres: Vailea is injured, Laybutt has had two poor weeks back to back, and I'm already suggesting Purdue gets moved fullback. But again, I think we're wasting our backrowers right now. Nanai is big, fast over the ground, has good hands and he'll certainly stiffen up the defence out there (a few opposition runners might be taking some peeks for their safety). 

And for 2006

• Hire a defensive coach. 

Quite clearly our system isn't working. We have the worst defence in the comp. Too complex, poorly suited to our playing group, not drilled into the group enough, I'm not sure to be honest. Let's get someone who knows defence to focus on it. It HAS to improve if we want to be a factor in finals.

• Settle on a haves combination

We started the season unsure of who our halves combo would be (Duffy, Dearden, Purdue & Clifford were all in the mix). Rather than firing the players up to perform though, and getting the best out of them, it just seems to have led to confusion & uncertainty.

We've tried 6 different combos this year (Duffy-Dearden, Clifford-Dearden, Dearden-Purdue, Clifford-Purdue, Dearden-Clifford, Duffy-Clifford) and we still haven't settled on what combo is best, and that's terrible for team continuity & cohesion. It also eats up salary cap space carrying 4 halves rather than 3. We should have a settled preferred combo, with someone who can slot in if there's an injury or players are unavailable for SOO.

I think Dearden-Drinkwater is worth a crack, but whatever we do, let's make a call and end the uncertainty for 2026

• Recruit quality, not quantity

Rather than hire journeymen & fringe players at OKish sides (which is a fair description of many of our recent signings - Lawton, Burns, Paulo, O'Donnell), let's recruit quality players that lift our side not just "depth" players who aren't going to make our top 17. I'd rather 2 solid first graders than 4 depth guys

A great squad?

A constant refrain from the Cowboys fans is that we have a very strong playing group and we should be doing better.

Do we though really have a great squad?

I think we have some elite players (and once elite players) who provide something of a veneer over the true state of our squad.

Let go through and evaluate our current team:

Elite players (almost automatic picks for starting SOO)

Dearden, Cotter, Robson, Taulagi

Near elite players (fringe SOO starters/often in discussions)

Nanai, Drinkwater

Rock solid First Graders - auto picks every week

McLean (currently injured), Hess, Bateman (currently injured)

-------Threshold of would you'd ideally like to be playing---------

Promising but still finding feet in top grade & team

Laybutt, Purdue, Mikaele, Lahrs

Solid enough but kinda unremarkable

Vailea (currently injured), McIntyre (currently injured), Burns, Neame, Edwards, Clifford (currently injured)

-------Threshold of who should be in the 17 at all---------

Often picked, but probably shouldn't be

O'Donnell, Lawton

Greenhorns

Duffy, Kalepo 

Not selectable right now

Derby 

Basically untested

Paulo 

Chronically/Long Term Injured

BigJase, Luki, Valemei, Chester

I think it's impressive that we have 6 elite or near elite players, but I think the fact we have so few rock solid first graders is why I question where our squad is at. We should have 7 or 8 of these solid first graders, not 3. 

It means we're really reliant on fringe players & up and comers to fill out our 17. 1 or 2 of these guys is fine, but half the team? The fringe guys & up and comers don't bend the line running the ball, are a bit looser with their handling, miss a few more tackles and perhaps take some wrong options at key moments. And that hurts. 

I'd actually be much happier to have 1 or 2 less elite players if we were able to add 3 or 4 solid first graders. 

I simply don't though think this is a top 4 squad. I think it's actually a bottom half squad, with a sprinkling of quality players. We're also battling a lot of injuries at the moment

(note: I understand Drinky's recent form has been patchy, Mikaele has perhaps not gotten enough game time & some people believe Clifford is the second coming. Happy to hear the thoughts of others).

Was the 2025 season we're seeing baked in during the Cowboys offseason?

I don't think there'd be too many Cowboys fans who aren't disappointed at to how season 2025 is unfolding. After the Bulldogs game (round 19), we sit in 12th place, with 6 wins and 1 draw from our 17 games. While we're mathematically still able to make the finals, it would only be an incredibly one-eye fan  who thinks we're still in the running (the bookies have us at 16-1 to make the finals).

There's no shortage of gnashing of teeth, hand wringing & frustration from the Cowboys types on socials as to what's going wrong this year. I'm though wondering if this wasn't a result baked in during the off season. 

Consider our 17 for the finals game vs the Sharks in 2024:

Drinkwater, Feldt, Holmes, Vailea, Taulagi, Dearden, Clifford, McLean, Robson, Taumalolo, Luki, Nanai, Cotter, McIntyre, Edwards, Finefeuiaki, Neame

From that 17, we lost Holmes (a SOO player who played 24 games for the Cowboys last year), Feldt (who played 25 games & scored 23 tries) & Finefeuiaki (who played 25 games). 

We've also lost Luki to injury - he did an ACL in preseason. Didn't play a minute. 

Now admittedly we did sign some new players: Bateman, O'Donnell, Lawton & Paulo. Bateman has been the only one who has had an impact of note to date.

We also got Hess and Laybutt back after knee injuries cruelled their 2024 seasons. Hess has been strong, and Laybutt has had his moments, but has been patchy in both attack & defence.

So let's compare 2024 v 2025 

I think Hess pretty much offsets Finefeui. Hess probably has a better workrate, but Finefeui is more explosive. Reckon that's pretty much even stevens. One point to 2024, one point to 2025.

Bateman has been solid - he defends well, and has a bit of mongrel - but Luki is quite simply a better player. Power, speed, size, he's bloody hard to handle. 2024 gets the win

Holmes blows hot and cold, but his best is excellent and he's played over 200 NRL games and 20 SOO games. Laybutt is still finding his feet in top grade - he's played less than 20 NRL games. Another point to '24

Feldt was a club legend with over 150 career tries. And we've struggled to find a replacement winger, so I'm not even 100% sure who to compare him to. Maybe Derby? Burns? Doesn't really matter who you pick TBH, Feldt and team 24 gets the win. 

All of a sudden it doesn't seem so natural that we'd be better in 2025. We're missing 4 quality first graders, and have really only replaced only 1 of them with a player of a similar calibre.

So is it really that big a surprise we're struggling in 2025? 

(BTW BigJase played 23 games in 2024, and has only managed to play 6 out of our 17 games in 2025)