Was the 2025 season we're seeing baked in during the Cowboys offseason?

I don't think there'd be too many Cowboys fans who aren't disappointed at to how season 2025 is unfolding. After the Bulldogs game (round 19), we sit in 12th place, with 6 wins and 1 draw from our 17 games. While we're mathematically still able to make the finals, it would only be an incredibly one-eye fan  who thinks we're still in the running (the bookies have us at 16-1 to make the finals).

There's no shortage of gnashing of teeth, hand wringing & frustration from the Cowboys types on socials as to what's going wrong this year. I'm though wondering if this wasn't a result baked in during the off season. 

Consider our 17 for the finals game vs the Sharks in 2024:

Drinkwater, Feldt, Holmes, Vailea, Taulagi, Dearden, Clifford, McLean, Robson, Taumalolo, Luki, Nanai, Cotter, McIntyre, Edwards, Finefeuiaki, Neame

From that 17, we lost Holmes (a SOO player who played 24 games for the Cowboys last year), Feldt (who played 25 games & scored 23 tries) & Finefeuiaki (who played 25 games). 

We've also lost Luki to injury - he did an ACL in preseason. Didn't play a minute. 

Now admittedly we did sign some new players: Bateman, O'Donnell, Lawton & Paulo. Bateman has been the only one who has had an impact of note to date.

We also got Hess and Laybutt back after knee injuries cruelled their 2024 seasons. Hess has been strong, and Laybutt has had his moments, but has been patchy in both attack & defence.

So let's compare 2024 v 2025 

I think Hess pretty much offsets Finefeui. Hess probably has a better workrate, but Finefeui is more explosive. Reckon that's pretty much even stevens. One point to 2024, one point to 2025.

Bateman has been solid - he defends well, and has a bit of mongrel - but Luki is quite simply a better player. Power, speed, size, he's bloody hard to handle. 2024 gets the win

Holmes blows hot and cold, but his best is excellent and he's played over 200 NRL games and 20 SOO games. Laybutt is still finding his feet in top grade - he's played less than 20 NRL games. Another point to '24

Feldt was a club legend with over 150 career tries. And we've struggled to find a replacement winger, so I'm not even 100% sure who to compare him to. Maybe Derby? Burns? Doesn't really matter who you pick TBH, Feldt and team 24 gets the win. 

All of a sudden it doesn't seem so natural that we'd be better in 2025. We're missing 4 quality first graders, and have really only replaced only 1 of them with a player of a similar calibre.

So is it really that big a surprise we're struggling in 2025? 

(BTW BigJase played 23 games in 2024, and has only managed to play 6 out of our 17 games in 2025)