Finals. Hooray. Well kinda anyway......

 

So we've still got a round to go, but we've offically locked up a spot in the finals. It was a scruffy win over the Tigers, but we got the job done. It was our 13th win of the season.

We’ve certainly exceeded expectations this season - this is what AI (copilot) said the experts thought was likely for the Cowboys season 2026:

 So if you averaged the major previews, the Cowboys were generally expected to finish around 8th to 12th, with 10th or 11th probably being the most representative consensus position. Very few experts had them as genuine premiership contenders before the season started, and most viewed them as a fringe finals side after their 12th-placed finish in 2025.

 Interestingly, if they end up making the finals from that starting point, they will have significantly outperformed the expectations many commentators had for them entering 2026.

Some of the forecasts were particularly bleak: ESPN actually had us finishing 16^th. And I was kinda thinking ESPN wasn't far off the mark TBH. My hopes weren't high.

So by any sensible measure we’ve punched above our weight this season. And along the way we’ve rolled the Roosters, Penrith & Sharks, not to mention the Broncos twice.

It’s funny then that there seems to be a slightly down in the mouth feeling about the club and where we’re headed, and there’s an undercurrent about the position of Payten as head coach.

So let’s unpack all of that.

I don’t think the team is in great form, and as such any excitement is being tempered.

Since the 82-12 pounding the Roosters game us in round 22, we’ve looked unconvincing. Neither the of the wins against Tigers or the Gold Coast were sparkling, and we split those games with a loss to Parramatta. We just don’t seem to be able to put together solid blocks of good footy at the moment: pushing passes, giving away set restarts, inability to defuse kicks, bad moments of handling. And it’s no single player – rather it’s the squad as a whole. On Saturday, Mikaele & Burns who came up with some bad moments at key times – and to be fair they’ve been good this season – it just seems to be a malaise that drifts across the team collectively.

It is though worth noting, no player in the NRL has given away more ruck infringements than Luki. And Reed leads the league in set restarts.

I’m still of the belief we’ve got time to pull this together and maybe even jag a win that first week of the finals. 

I do though think we’re unlikely to go beyond that point. I look at the top 4 and feel they are playing at a different level.

 So why are they at that next level?

Personally, I think that’s a squad depth thing, which in turn is a recruitment thing. And I feel the recruitment for the Cowboys is far more hamstrung than most people believe. I’ll write to this more extensively when the season is over.

On the recruitment front, I see the club has signed Joe Chan, the second rower from the Storm. Strikes me as a good signing. Very much a regular in the 17 at the Storm